The ongoing government shutdown, once widely viewed as a two- or three-week affair, is morphing into a Washington debacle that easily could extend into November.

"An end to the shutdown requires either White House engagement on a deal or Democrats to cave. As of now, there are no signs of either," said analysts at Beacon Policy Advisors in a note. "The current shutdown could be in the running for the longest federal shutdown in history."

This month's partial shutdown will have lasted 20 days as of Monday, while the record for longest closure is held by the 35-day shutdown that took place nearly seven years ago, during Donald Trump's first term as president.

Prediction market Kalshi on Friday was putting the current shutdown's likely length at about 41 days, after indicating two weeks ago that it'd go for just 14 days.

Here's a rundown of key points as the shutdown keeps going.

How long could the shutdown last?

Nov. 1 is when open enrollment starts for Obamacare plans, and that's widely seen as something that could help drive dealmaking. The current shutdown has happened largely because Democrats and Republicans are locked in a standoff over including an extension for Obamacare subsidies in funding legislation, and the higher premiums for plans will become more apparent starting Nov. 1.

However, the Beacon analysts emphasized that the subsidies for Obamacare, also known as the Affordable Care Act, or ACA, don't actually stop until the end of this year. "The true deadline for action on the subsidies is December 31," they noted.

Delays at airports because of staffing shortages also are viewed as something that could bring about the end of the shutdown, if the problems for travelers become acute or generate lots of headlines. Air-traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration screeners are being told to show up for work even though they're missing out on pay due to the shutdown, so some are expected to protest by not showing up.

"Travel and/or ACA premium shocks" could turn out to be "potential off-ramps" that end the shutdown, said Chris Krueger, an analyst at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, in a note. But he added that he thinks the endgame for the shutdown is likely to be a way off - possibly around Thanksgiving.

Analysts at Wolfe Research are also among the shutdown watchers who see a chance that this one could become the longest in U.S. history.

There could be pressure to make a deal from the looming Nov. 1 payday for the U.S. military, but the Wolfe analysts reckon it's most likely that Trump will again find a way to cover their paychecks as he did for their payday this past Wednesday, Oct. 15, even as the legality of his move was questioned.

"Many in D.C. had circled the Oct. 15 payday for active-duty servicemembers as something that could bring the shutdown to a close, but the administration had been examining options for weeks to get them paid," said the Wolfe team, led by Tobin Marcus. Administration officials opted to redirect unused funding from an $8 billion military account for research and development to cover the paychecks.

Polling suggests that voters are putting at least as much blame on Republicans as on Democrats, and that's "contributing to the impasse, since even as consequences start to emerge, that doesn't hasten the end of the shutdown if neither side believes they're taking the blame for those consequences," the Wolfe analysts said.

Trash hasn't been handled properly at California's Joshua Tree National Park during the partial government shutdown.

How's the economic damage looking?

A range of economists have given estimates for how much the current shutdown will subtract from U.S. economic growth for each week that it persists, and they've generally put the hit at 0.1% or 0.2% per week.

That amount may look small, given that U.S. gross domestic product grew 3.8% in the second quarter, according to an estimate released last month. But there have been warnings that the economic damage could be bigger than expected if the Trump White House goes through with the mass layoffs of government workers that it's threatened.

More than 4,100 layoff notices went out more than a week ago, but a federal judge last Wednesday granted a temporary restraining order blocking such job cuts. Meanwhile, the White House's budget director, Russ Vought, said last week that the number of layoffs will "probably end up being north of 10,000."

A top Trump economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, warned in a Fox Business Network interview on Friday that if the shutdown continues then in the days ahead the president's "actions to cancel silly government programs the Democrats love and to take them away forever - that is going to ramp up significantly."

In a MarketWatch poll on the social-media platform X, 47% of respondents said their biggest concern about the shutdown was the potential hit to the economy. That was ahead of the effect on travel, which was at 25%, as well as ahead of paying furloughed workers, at 15%. "Potential hit to the economy" also got the biggest response when MarketWatch ran the same poll on other social platforms.

The Wolfe Research analysts said they remain optimistic.

"If the troops are still getting paid and other payments will go out retroactively once the shutdown ends, we still don't see much reason to expect big long-term impacts," they wrote. The closure "could also hit consumer confidence and chill government-worker consumption in more lasting ways, but we're not too concerned."

On the other hand, independent economist Ethan Harris said in a note that, while he doesn't expect a recession, he does think this shutdown "will have more lasting impacts as it hits an already vulnerable economy."