供给受限与天气扰动下 煤价或仍将震荡上行

工银瑞信基金
Oct 23, 2025

点击即可收听全部内容近期动力煤市场表现较为强势,价格明显上涨,带动煤炭板块不断走强。我们认为,10月以来煤价超预期大涨,主要受煤矿生产受限及天气因素带动电厂日耗影响。煤炭产量在核查超产等政策推动下供给持续受限,同时近期南方高温而北方寒潮的天气原因推升用煤需求。考虑到年内核查超产及安全检查影响持续,且今年出现冷冬的概率较高,煤价或仍将震荡上行。在“反内卷”背景下,今年7月国家能源局启动核查超产政策,...

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