经济学家调查:美联储下周降息已成共识,明年降息路径分歧较大

Odaily
Oct 22, 2025

Odaily星球日报讯 路透社一项经济学家调查显示,美联储下周将降息 25 个基点,并在 12 月再次降息;但对于明年年底利率水平,受访经济学家仍存在严重分歧。

在 117 名受访经济学家中,除 2 人外,其余 115 人均预测美联储将在 10 月 29 日再次降息 25 个基点,使利率降至 3.75%-4.00% 区间。另有 2 人预计 10 月降息 25 个基点、12 月降息 50 个基点。对于 12 月是否再次降息,支持的经济学家比例降至 71%。此次调查开展于 10 月 15 日至 21 日。

关于明年年底利率水平,经济学家给出了七种不同预测,区间从 2.25% - 2.50% 到 3.75% - 4.00% 不等。不确定性增加的部分原因是,市场猜测鲍威尔主席任期将于明年 5 月结束后,谁将接任美联储主席一职。(金十)

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