Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Wednesday reiterated its hold rating on the shares of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO, CNQ) with a C$50.00 price target as it previewed its expectations for the oil and gas producer's third-quarter results.

"Updating our model into earnings has slightly decreased our cash flow estimate to C$1.70 CFPS (~C$3.6B absolute) from our prior C$1.76, ~in-line with Street at C$1.69 ex-outliers. The primary change besides mark-to-market factors was a decrease to our mining production volumes (TPHe 578mbopd vs. prior/Street 599/575), offset slightly by additional gas production of 50mmcf/d vs. our prior expectations (model now reflecting a full quarter of Palliser), bringing our total production estimate to 1,597mboepd vs. prior/Street 1,608/1,605. Notably, we also trued up for the SHEL asset swap not yet having closed, increasing SCO exposure vs. our prior model at the upgrader and backing out the AOSP dilbit exposure we initially forecasted. We now look for the asset swap to close in early November, pending approval from the Competition Bureau. Elsewhere on ops, TPHe C$1.4B capex looks in-line vs. Street ex-acquisitions and abandonment, with FCF easily supporting the C$306MM in share repurchases factored into our model," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.

(MT Newswires covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www.mtnewswires.com/contact-us)

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