智通财经APP获悉，普徕仕环球固定收益主管兼首席投资总监Arif Husain发表关于美国经济以及美联储未来政策方向的观点。他指，虽然通胀未如预期般高企，但最新数据显示通胀压力正在扩散而非减弱。即使人工智能或能在中期带来通缩效应，但这影响尚未显现。另外，随着政治压力对美联储独立性构成挑战，通胀风险无疑正在上升。
在影响利率的因素中，市场完全聚焦于美国经济增长及就业市场放缓，却忽视了通胀反弹的可能性，这令人感到意外。值得关注的是，美国移民政策已限制劳动力供应，但市场共识未能充分预料每月新增职位数字下跌的可能性。就业市场似乎也成为美联储关注的焦点。
展望未来，随着下任美联储主席将于2026年5月就职，央行对长期国债票息率的根本性影响力将是不容忽视的因素。虽然市场普遍预期下任主席将降低短期利率，但美联储可能采取票息率曲线控制措施，以压低长期票息率的可能性，目前仍未引起市场充分关注。
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