Coca-Cola's (KO) Q3 resiliency is likely to persist with scarcity value coming at a premium, BofA Securities said in a Tuesday research report.
The firm said it expects Coca-Cola to continue comping mid-single-digit organic sales in Q4 2025 and into 2026, and peers might struggle to keep up. "Our EPS estimates for 2025-27 are unchanged post 3Q," the analysts said.
The company exited Q3 with a robust September following a slump in July and August, resulting in an acceleration in two-year volume trends each month. Organic sales grew 6% with unit case volumes up 1%, supported by a 6% price/mix benefit.
The company's unit case volumes in Q4 could be negative from a year earlier due to tough comps. BofA modelled net organic sales growth of 5% in Q4, driven by "modest" FX benefit. It also expects gross margin expansion from stocking benefit and SG&A reinvestment, according to the note.
For early 2026, the firm said it expects an FX tailwind to sales and EPS, while price/mix could normalize further as volume improvements stay aligned with expectations.
BofA reiterated its buy rating on the stock and raised its price target to $80 per share from $78.
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