智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，内地快递物流业成为了国家反内卷政策的范例，近几个月的定价规则、包裹量增长及竞争格局均出现显著转变；9月的平均价格及包裹量趋势亦反映出监管介入的影响。
报告指，“双11”的初步数据显示消费者参与度稳固，但促销期延长，加上补贴策略不断变化，均创造新的不确定性。市场反应显示投资者对行业的兴趣回升，但偏好顺序正在改变，例如在第三季中表现落后的中通快递-W(02057)、顺丰控股(06936)及京东物流(02618)重新获得关注。
就今年第三季表现，该行预期顺丰利润将同比升3%至29亿元人民币，反映在高基数下，集团的包裹量依然稳健，而且成本管理严格。至于中通，在反内卷下，公司将行业竞争由“以量取胜”转为“着重利润”。
该行首选中通及顺丰，前者排序优先，获“增持”评级，港股目标价187港元，美股(ZTO.US)目标价24美元；顺丰H股目标价48港元，A股(002352.SZ)目标价51元人民币，均获“增持”评级。至于京东物流目标价15港元，同样获“增持”评级。
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