10月21日,高盛预计明年布伦特原油价格将进一步下跌,在明年第四季度达到52美元/桶,但由于两个原因,下一次价格大幅下跌可能需要时间才能实现。
首先,经济合作与发展组织11月份的商业库存增加可能已经反映在价格中,下一次库存加速增加要到明年1月份。其次,柴油炼油利润率的持续走强支撑了炼油运营和原油需求。高盛仍然认为,与全球原油需求压力相比,俄罗斯石油产量面临的下行风险更多来自内部挑战(如本币升值、设备老化和技术短缺)以及乌克兰对俄罗斯能源基础设施的攻击。
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