美银:信贷紧张或引发被动抛售 股市面临熊市信号

格隆汇
Oct 21

10月21日,美银策略师表示,信贷市场进一步承压可能引发股市新一轮全面抛售,因为包括养老金在内的长期投资者将被迫出售资产。美银证券的Savita Subramanian表示:“如果私人信贷市场的波动持续,养老金等机构可能被迫出售指数基金,以避免私人资产的估值调整。”她表示,被动投资“主导了标普500指数”,因此市场下跌将迫使指数基金进一步抛售。

Miller Tabak+首席市场策略师Matt Maley也指出,银行板块ETF可能加剧卖压。“鉴于银行ETF已经显著走弱,只需进一步小幅下跌就可能确认银行股趋势发生重大转变。”美银还指出,标普500指数在20项不同的估值指标中均显得“统计上昂贵”,这意味着这轮已持续三年的牛市面临越来越高的估值风险,同时市场下行的概率正在上升。

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