金吾财讯 | 建银国际表示，MSCI中国银行指数自7月高点回调9%，但年初至今回报率仍达15%，落后全球/中国大盘约14-15个百分点。该机构认为，中国银行业是优质的补涨标的。在市场波动加剧的背景下，中国银行业是防御性配置选择，因板块股息率处5.2-5.6%区间高位，具备稳健绝对回报价值。该机构预计2025年第三季度中国银行业利润增速将回升。预测行业净利润同比增速将达2%。另预计营收与拨备前利润将小幅增长。尽管净息差压力有所缓解（环比下降1个基点，同比下降14个基点），但以下因素对冲了部分压力：（1）资产规模同比扩张9%；（2）手续费收入同比增长7%；（3）交易收入同比增长12%。该机构指，资产负债表质量持续改善。该机构预计，除了负债结构优化，定期存款利率下调还将进一步释放资金成本红利。该机构持续看好资产质量与资产负债表拨备水平的稳步优化。总体而言，这些指标均表明，银行业在维持良好资本充足率（CAR）的同时，既能为实体经济提供更强支撑，也能实现更高的股息支付率。
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