招商证券：维持泡泡玛特(09992)“强烈推荐”投资评级料近期发布2025年三季报

智通财经

Oct 21

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，维持泡泡玛特(09992)“强烈推荐”投资评级。考虑到1)海外组织架构促进海外健康持续增长;2)“精灵天团”LABUBU/星星人等IP产品势能良好，上调2025-2027年盈利预测，经调整净利润分别为109.6/149.2/183.1亿元(前值分别为103.7/142.1/173.6亿元)，对应2025-2027年经调整PE分别为32.3x/23.8x/19.4x。

2022-2024年公司分别于10月25日/24日/22日发布三季度最近业务情况信息，预计公司将于近期发布2025年三季度业务情况。考虑到新品上新势能强劲及各渠道持续增长，假设25Q3经调整净利润占全年经调整利润比为27.5%(假设24Q3利润率与24Q4持平，则对应24Q3占利润比为29.8%，考虑24H1上新及补货节奏影响，假设占比同比下降;假设25Q2利润率与25Q1持平，则对应占比为25.9%)，假设经调整利润率为33%，该行预计25Q3公司收入端同比增长为154.2%，环比增长约8.9%，绝对值为91.7亿元;经调整净利润同比增长198.6%，绝对值为30.3亿元(三季度仅披露经营收入增速区间，绝对值及利润同比预测仅供参考)。

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