国信证券：维持锅圈(02517)“优于大市”评级目标价4.03-4.51港元

智通财经

Oct 27

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，维持锅圈(02517)“优于大市”评级，预计2025-2027年公司实现营业总收入73.3/84.4/95.9亿元，同比13.3%/15.1%/13.6%;2025-2027年公司实现归母净利润4.1/4.9/5.6亿元，同比78.9%/19.4%/13.7%;实现EPS0.15/0.18/0.20元，目标价4.03-4.51港元。公司作为成长赛道的加盟型龙头，初步完成万店网络布局，未来整合供应链效率释放后，盈利空间有向上可能性。

锅圈采用“单品单厂”模式，自建7家工厂覆盖调味料、丸滑、水产等品类，产能2022年达到2.5万吨。2024年收购华鼎冷链完善全国冷链网络，覆盖290个城市。同时，公司精细化运营，提升多店加盟商，门店广泛分布于低线城市，结合消费者反馈快速迭代产品，门店模型不断优化，该行测算公司单店模型省会/地级/县级市回本周期分别为12.2/17.9/20.1个月。另外，公司积极拓展抖音等新渠道，2024年线上爆品套餐实现翻倍以上增长。

该行指，基于城市线级人口密度测算，中性情景下公司门店总数有望达1.9万家，增量主要来自下沉市场。单店效率提升方面，公司通过毛肚自由套餐等爆品引流，单店收入同比实现恢复，无人零售模式已覆盖2000家门店延长营业时间。对标ROE约21%的日本神户物产，锅圈资本开支从2022年2.5亿元降至2024年1.5亿元，规模效应有望降低费用，净利率有改善空间。

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