【券商聚焦】中信证券坚定看好PCB作为AI芯片端最同频升级的产业机会

金吾财讯
Oct 27

金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,9月下旬以来,PCB板块持续走弱,PCB(中信)指数自9月下旬高点回调约16%,除交易面有所降温外,该机构看到市场担忧主要体现在:1)短期业绩扰动:今年随着英伟达GB200/300的逐步放量,高阶PCB产能全面紧缺,行业产能陆续开出的过程中,PCB龙头业绩与市场高预期有一定错配,引发市场对未来行业业绩增速的担忧。2)行业竞争格局变化:众多头部PCB厂商加速切入AI PCB市场,年中以来多家公司发布投产计划,行业供给格局未来或将趋于拥挤。3)新应用落地延后:目前正交背板方案正处送样进程中,PCB工艺、CCL材料等诸多环节仍需优化,落地节奏存在不确定性。综合来看,该机构认为中短期内行业头部厂商的业绩高增仍具较强确定性,中长期来看,随着产能紧缺逐步缓解,具备差异化竞争力(客户关系、海外产能等)的厂商有望实现超额业绩增长。该机构持续坚定看好PCB作为AI芯片端最同频升级的产业机会,反映的是AI芯片及高速网络对高端HDI、高速高层PCB的结构性需求快速增长,同时行业竞争格局/供需有望在中短期内维持良性,龙头厂商业绩持续高增的确定性正在持续强化,行业整体的估值水平仍存在进一步的提升空间,该机构持续看好AI PCB板块未来的弹性空间。该机构建议关注:1)技术能力/客户卡位领先、业绩高确定性的龙头厂商。2)边际变化突出,积极扩张产能、AI业务预期持续强化的厂商。3)受益于覆铜板价格上行周期的利润改善,以及高端材料放量的覆铜板龙头。

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