智通财经APP获悉，周一，在联邦政府关门导致官方劳动数据暂停发布的背景下，芝加哥联储利用私营部门数据构建的模型显示，美国10月失业率大致维持在4.3%附近，与8月的官方读数一致，表明就业市场进一步降温但尚未出现失控迹象。
芝加哥联储此前估算，9月未四舍五入的失业率为4.34%，8月为4.35%。由于9月官方失业数据缺失，该模型被迫以上一月自身“实时估算”作为基准，进而推算10月水平。芝加哥联储提醒，这一做法可能在政府停摆持续时间较长时累积误差，但预计在未来一至三个月影响“仍然有限”。
该模型结合多类私营来源，与劳动力市场不同切面高度相关。芝加哥联储指出，当前估算结果与仍正常公布的部分州级失业救济申领小幅上升趋势一致，显示美国就业已明显降温，但尚未进入衰退性恶化。
美联储本周召开议息会议，市场普遍预计将再度降息25个基点，一方面作为对经济放缓和数据盲区风险的保险性操作，另一方面也是为了提前对冲失业率潜在的突然上行压力。
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