港股异动 | 乳业股午前普涨原奶价格近期迎阶段性稳定行业下半年去化有望提速

智通财经

Oct 28

智通财经APP获悉，乳业股午前普涨，截至发稿，优然牧业(09858)涨5.74%，报3.13港元；现代牧业(01117)涨3.36%，报1.23港元；中国飞鹤(06186)涨1.95%，报4.18港元；中国圣牧(01432)涨1.59%，报0.32港元。

国盛证券发布研报称，原奶价格经过4年下行周期，近期迎来阶段性稳定，全国主产区原奶均价从8月3.02元/kg陆续提升至9月末3.04元/kg，宁夏散奶价格从2.1-2.2元/kg提升至3.5-3.7元/kg，一方面来自于中秋国庆礼赠需求带动，另一方面为7-9月奶牛“热应激”阶段供给量自然下降。本轮奶价进入下行周期末端，伴随存栏去化加速，有望迎来拐点，但在规模牧场占比提升背景下，奶价涨跌波动将显著平抑。对于牧业公司而言，奶价降幅收窄及淘牛减亏，将带来报表端利润修复。

天风证券则指出，9月以来，尽管双节前备货启动及学生奶生产需求带动部分区域散奶价格出现反弹，但主产区奶价整体仍保持稳定。目前奶价仍处于成本线以下，行业亏损与青贮带来的资金压力持续存在，产能去化继续演绎，9月奶牛存栏量环比下降0.18%(8月为下降0.2%)，累计去化幅度已达约8%。该行认为，尽管双节因素对奶价形成短期支撑，但奶企去产能趋势仍在延续，待节日消费支撑减弱，去化趋势或更无需过度担忧。目前产能去化或已接近尾声，奶价周期拐点值得期待。

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