By Shaina Mishkin

Investors have a limited read on demand for new homes as the government shutdown rolls on. They are about to gain more information from America's largest public home builder.

The Arlington, Tex.-based D.R. Horton, the largest U.S. builder by market capitalization, will report its fourth quarter results on Tuesday before the market opens. Analysts expect that the builder earned $3.27 a share on about $9.4 billion in revenue in its fourth quarter, and $11.82 a share on $34 billion for the full year, according to FactSet. That's down from last 2024's fourth quarter earnings of $3.92 a share on $10 billion in revenue.

This year has been a difficult one for builders, who have contended with tepid demand, more competition from homeowners listing their properties, and investor fears of higher costs due to tariffs. The National Association of Home Builders' measure of industry sentiment has remained in pessimistic territory all year, with plenty of builders offering incentives or cutting prices to keep homes selling.

These headwinds have made it hard for builders and related companies to get off the ground. The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund was up 0.6% this year as of Friday's close, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

In that time, D.R. Horton has been a relative winner, with its stock price gaining roughly 13% -- less than the S&P 500's 15.5% gain, but more than most other builders in the fund.

With government home sales data still lacking due to the government shutdown, investors will look to Horton's earnings and commentary for any signs that the recent drop in mortgage rates is resulting in more home sales than usual.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell last week to 6.19%, its lowest level measured by Freddie Mac in over a year, after trending downward this autumn. But analysts and economists have observed that buyers remain hesitant in part because of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Of particular interest to investors will be Horton's results and expectations around its home sales gross margin and net sales orders.

The former will offer a read on what it takes to close a sale in a difficult market. Analysts expect that Horton will report a 21.4% home sales gross margin for the fourth quarter, lower than the 21.8% margin it reported in the third quarter, according to FactSet. They will be looking for management to guide toward a 21.2% margin for the company's first quarter.

Horton's net sales orders, meanwhile, will offer a read on buyer demand. Analysts expect that the company will report 19,783 orders, up from 19,035 in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to FactSet.

Investors will also be listening for any impact from policy changes. PulteGroup, another large builder that reported earnings earlier this month, said it expects that tariffs could increase the cost of building by roughly $1,500 a home beginning in 2026.

Write to Shaina Mishkin at shaina.mishkin@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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October 27, 2025 16:00 ET (20:00 GMT)

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