智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，快递反内卷已扩散至全国，明显提升了企业的单票收入，并将明显修复电商快递企业下半年与明年的盈利，盈利弹性取决于提价持续性。建议重视电商快递业绩确定性改善机遇。维持顺丰控股(002352.SZ)增持，相关标的圆通速递(600233.SH)、中通快递-W(02057)、极免速递-W(01519)、韵达股份(002120.SZ)。
该行表示，行业小件化趋势延续，预计业务量维持韧性增长。2025年8月，快递业务量累计完成1282.0亿件，同比增长17.8%(可比口径)，增速实现逆势增长，小件化趋势延续，叠加中西部地区、农村等下沉市场消费潜力释放，2025下半年和26年行业业务量有望实现韧性增长。
2025年1-8月，快递行业单票收入为7.48元，同比下滑7.3%，相较于24年末同比降幅12.3%有所收窄，反映出反内卷监管下的行业价格竞争趋缓。考虑到此轮“反内卷”呈现出覆盖更广泛、时间更早、涨幅更大的特点，叠加电商旺季将至，25下半年和26年快递单价有望企稳修复。
规模效应减弱，无人车打开末端降本空间。小件化趋势下规模效应减弱，单票核心成本下行趋缓。随着运输成本和中转成本降本空间收窄，无人车技术将打开末端派送成本降本空间。此外，社保新规短期将导致单票成本上升，长期有望推动行业向价值竞争转型。
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