金吾财讯 | 财通证券研报指，金蝶国际(00268)发布三季度经营数据，截至2025年9月30日，公司订阅ARR约为38.6亿元，苍穹&星瀚/星空/星辰/精斗云NDR分别为105%/95%/93%/88%；期内中标签约客户包括Chin Hin Group Berhad、北汽集团、玉柴集团等。该机构指，订阅ARR净新增平稳，基数抬升致增速放缓。该机构进一步按照存量净留存和新签两部分来分解ARR的增长，1）NDR表现相对稳定：苍穹&星瀚/星空/星辰/精斗云3Q25 NDR分别为105%/95%/93%/88%，环比上季度末的108%/94%/93%/88%基本持平（其中苍穹&星瀚NDR小幅下滑为季度波动影响），大企业同比大幅改善（3Q24 NDR分别为97%/95%/93%/88%）；2）ARR同比斜率下行更多归因至宏观经济疲软下的新签贡献相对期初体量的占比下降。该机构认为，订阅ARR同比增速放缓属体量扩大+新签相对占比的自然回落，而绝对净新增保持平稳，仍为后续订阅收入确认形成延续性支撑。该机构预计2025-2027年公司收入分别为70.1/79.0/89.5亿元，现价对应PS为6.9x/6.1x/5.4x。考虑到公司续费与ARR表现保持韧性，AI与出海带来边际贡献可期，上调至“买入”评级。
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