A cascade of billion-dollar deals is reshaping the once-dormant Western critical-minerals industry, which the U.S. and its allies hope will act as a bulwark against aggressive trade practices by China.
Since China began restricting exports of rare earths in April -- causing auto factories to halt production and rare-earth prices to shoot up -- a wave of private and government funding has flowed into rare-earth companies. They now have money to hire technical experts, expand plants and make strategic acquisitions as they race to build out a non-Chinese supply of materials required in high-tech manufacturing.
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are set to meet on Thursday in South Korea, and rare earths are expected to be high on the agenda. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he expected Beijing would agree, as part of a trade deal, to defer certain planned export restrictions on rare earths. But few expect the two leaders to resolve the issue fully.
In recent days, Orion Resource Partners, an investment firm specializing in metals, announced a $1.8 billion investment consortium, seeded in part with U.S. government money, to secure critical minerals for the U.S. and its allies. Earlier last week, Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement to fund critical-mineral and rare-earth projects.
Tied to that announcement, the Export-Import Bank of the United States, a federal agency, announced $2.2 billion in potential financing for seven mineral projects in Australia, and the White House said the Defense Department would invest in an advanced gallium refinery in Western Australia, needed for semiconductor manufacturing. JPMorgan Chase said earlier this month it would invest $10 billion in companies important to national security, including rare-earth companies.
The funding boom suggests China's shock tactics have catalyzed a revival of the Western rare-earth industry, much as U.S. efforts to restrict advanced semiconductor exports to China have turbocharged Chinese efforts to catch up with the U.S. in chips.
China has "awakened the sleeping giant," said John Ormerod, a rare-earths industry consultant.
Retail and private investors are pouring in billions of dollars of their own. MP Materials, America's flagship rare-earth miner, has seen its share price roughly quadruple this year, raising its market capitalization to around $12 billion. Australian rare-earth company Lynas Rare Earths raised about $500 million from investors in August. Its share price has tripled this year.
Western critical mineral companies long struggled to raise cash because of their weak position against China's state-backed mineral giants, known for flooding the world with low-cost materials.
China's restrictions this year, including a sudden move in October to tighten curbs on rare-earth exports, have fundamentally changed the picture. They have made clear that Beijing's control of rare earths isn't a theoretical tool in trade conflicts, but a powerful weapon it will use whenever it feels like hurting the U.S.
That has prompted the U.S. to take steps that will build the industry over the long term. One example: The U.S. government agreed to provide a price floor for MP Materials so it is protected against any price crash triggered by Chinese overproduction.
Ucore Rare Metals, a Canadian rare-earth processor, was awarded $18 million by the Pentagon to build its first commercial plant in Louisiana, which will turn raw rare earths into oxides used by many industries. Its stock price has jumped more than 700% this year.
"We're looking at this as a Manhattan Project. You've got to move quickly to get this job done," said Pat Ryan, Ucore's CEO, who expects to have the plant running next year.
Beijing's licensing system, introduced in April, requires foreign companies to get permission before they import powerful rare-earth magnets from China. Licenses can take many weeks to go through and are often rejected, frustrating buyers in the automobile, defense and electronics industries.
In June, U.S. leaders said China had agreed to relax magnet restrictions after a trade truce. But some American companies say it has since gotten harder to acquire magnets again, with Chinese rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S. declining 29% in September from the month before.
"International supply chains are geared towards just-in-time and not towards some Beijing bureaucrats making up their minds over months at a time whether to license a particular export shipment or not," said Thomas Kruemmer, a rare-earth analyst based in Singapore.
Restoring Western supply chains will take time, and the rare-earths industry has seen false dawns before. The industry outside of China is short of experience and expertise. Should the U.S. and China reach a long-term agreement to resume normal trading relations, Western buyers of critical minerals would be tempted to dip back into the Chinese well.
"This isn't even the end of the beginning. This is the beginning of the beginning," said Oskar Lewnowski, chief executive of Orion Resource Partners.
Even if the boom has staying power, that doesn't mean every project will succeed. It can be hard for nonspecialist investors to distinguish the gems from the duds, or predict which companies are in line for government support.
The funding surge for a Western supply chain began in July, when the U.S. government invested $400 million in MP Materials and committed to ensuring buyers for its magnets.
Adamas Intelligence, which tracks the rare-earths industry, has more than tripled its projections for total U.S. rare-earth magnet capacity in 2030.
Phoenix Tailings, a New England company that makes rare-earth metals and alloys used in magnets, opened a factory for rare-earth metals in Exeter, N.H., in recent days. Chief Executive Nick Myers wants to add capacity quickly, for which he will need to raise money.
Last year, that would have been a daunting prospect. Many potential investors didn't know the importance of obscure rare-earth minerals such as praseodymium. Today, investors have done their research. "I don't think anyone in the sector is having a challenge getting private capital, " Myers said.