金吾财讯 | 招银国际预计微博(09898)3Q25总营收同比下降5%至4.42亿美元，略低于该机构此前预期，主因快消品、手机及游戏等部分行业广告需求不及预期。该机构预计3Q25非GAAP净利润同比下降20%至1.11亿美元（基本符合一致预期），主要受收入下滑以及AI投资增加的影响。鉴于部分行业面临压力，该机构将FY25-27总营收预测下调1%-2%。该机构将估值窗口更新至FY26，将目标价微调至14.0美元，基于8x FY26非GAAP PE（前值：14.5美元基于8x FY25非GAAP PE）。维持“买入”评级，重点关注FY26营收复苏趋势及AI商业化进展。
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