荷兰国际集团利率策略团队指出，相较于德国国债，英国金边债券对风险情绪的敏感度呈现结构性溢价。其量化模型显示，若英国政府在11月26日预算案中未能兑现财政可持续承诺，十年期英债收益率或将经历剧烈重估。

　　报告特别预警三类政策风险：扩大公共支出、提升债券发行规模及实施通胀驱动型增税措施，均可能动摇市场对英国财政纪律的信心。据Tradeweb数据，当前十年期英债收益率已攀升4个基点至4.436%，较同期德债收益率溢价扩大至189个基点，创2022年英国“迷你预算”危机以来最大息差。衍生品市场定价显示，投资者对英国AAA主权评级的违约保护成本跳升6%至47个基点。

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