【券商聚焦】国泰海通维持安踏体育(02020)“增持”评级 指零售环境竞争激烈、内部调整效果显现需要时间

金吾财讯
Oct 30

金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指,安踏体育(02020)25Q3安踏主品牌流水增长低单位数,增速环比Q2(增长低单位数)持平。考虑到25H1电商部门管理层调整后,短期内产品可调整空间有限,且运营质量优先于流水扩张,公司小幅下调安踏主品牌全年流水指引至增长低单位数(此前为增长中单位数),维持营业利润率20-25%低段指引。25Q3FILA流水增长低单位数,增速环比Q2(增长中单位数)放缓。其中Q3电商渠道流水增长高单位数。公司维持FILA全年流水增长中单指引,维持营业利润率25%指引。9月FILA发布网球运动生态模型,签约目前世界排名最高的中国网协男单球员布云朝克特,并成为2025-2027中国网球公开赛独家官方运动鞋服赞助商,该机构预计网球系列新品售罄率高于传统产品。该机构认为:1)安踏主品牌在大众运动市场承压环境下,流水表现仍优于行业,灯塔计划和新店型开设持续有序推动;2)FILA全年清库基调下,折扣有望保持稳定,网球品类持续发力,年末库销比预计达到5-6个月健康水平;3)其他品牌保持高速增长势能。考虑到零售环境竞争激烈、内部调整效果显现需要时间,该机构小幅下调盈利预测,预计公司2025-2027净利润为130.7/145.8/163.0亿元,给予2025年PE估值区间20X,按照1港元=0.92人民币元汇率换算,对应目标价101.2港元,维持“增持”评级。

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