智通财经APP获悉，建银国际发布研报称，下调青岛啤酒股份(00168) 今明两年净利润预测3%/4%，以反映平均售价增长放缓及销售前景更趋审慎。估值基准切换至2026年，并将EV/EBITDA倍数由12倍下调至10倍，以体现消费低迷及高端化进程慢于同业的现状。同时下调集团H股目标价7%，由55.6港元降至51.5港元，维持“中性”评级。
报告表示，青岛啤酒今年第三季净利润同比增1.6%至13.7亿元人民币，但因收入表现不佳，未达该行及市场预期。尽管春节前备货及消费刺激政策将提供一定支撑，该行预计第四季至2026年初，消费市场仍将保持弱势。由于行业促销活动正趋于常态化，该行认为集团销量增长及市占率面临的风险有限。并预测2026年收入增长将加速至2.6%，主要由1.7%的销量增长及1%的平均售价增长推动。
另凭大麦低成本及产品结构持续改善，该行假设2026年毛利率将提升0.2个百分点至42%，息税前利润率(EBIT margin)提升0.3个百分点至15.8%。此外，集团于10月26日终止拟收购山东即墨黄酒的计划，此举消除了交易相关不确定性对经营的影响。
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