MW Stocks on Fed days tend to get knocked around. Why today may be no different.

By Joy Wiltermuth

'As a whole, there shouldn't be a lot of surprises, but it's just that [markets] are so overdone on a variety of risk assets,' said Wells Fargo's Samana

Investors might want to listen to any flutters in their stomachs ahead of today's Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.

Since 2020, the Fed has made decisions on rates eight times each year. But as the above chart shows, the stock market tended to see jolts on those days, as traders were hanging on to all of the U.S. central bank's latest thoughts around monetary policy and the economy.

It's little surprise that the S&P 500 index SPX had its biggest 5.38% intraday swing of this stretch during the Mar. 3, 2020, Fed rates decision day, which coincided with extreme pandemic fear and a bazooka of support unleased by the central bank.

Plenty of other Fed decision days saw intraday swings of at least 3% in the past five years. On average, the intraday swing was 1.7%, while the median range was 1.3%, according to a review by Dow Jones Market Data. Typically, any 1% move in the stock market in a single day would be notable.

"The Fed goes to painstaking efforts to not surprise markets," said Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, while pointing to the near 100% odds of a Fed rate cut today.

And there may be a good rationale for the Fed to cut rates today, he said. But any messaging around the path of rates thereafter could be trickier, given that inflation sits at 3%, above target, as well as other uncertainties hanging over markets.

"That may throw markets for a little bit of a loop," Samana said.

To underscore the point, the S&P 500 on average advanced in the past two years once Fed rate decisions were released at 2 p.m. Eastern. But things got choppy when Chair Powell's news conferences began about a half-hour later.

The S&P 500 tends to see significant moves during Fed decision days, often rising and falling during Chair Jerome Powell's news conferences

Unique to this Wednesday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and Nasdaq Composite Index COMP all were headed for a fourth straight day of record closes, which would be the longest such win streak since Nov. 3, 2021, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

A slew of megacap tech giants MAGS were also set to report earnings after the closing bell, perhaps setting the tone for the rest of this year in markets.

"As a whole, there shouldn't be a lot of surprises, but it's just that [markets] are so overdone on a variety of risk assets," said Wells Fargo's Samana. That means today's Fed meeting might be an excuse for some investors to sell into the recent strength, he said.

Ken Jimenez and Idoia Linacero contributed

-Joy Wiltermuth

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October 29, 2025 11:34 ET (15:34 GMT)

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