Tiger Brokers

光大证券：维持ASMPT(00522)“增持”评级 TCB设备预计25Q4和2026年出货加速

智通财经
Oct 30

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，维持ASMPT(00522)“增持”评级，AI需求强劲，主流业务和SMT恢复，TCB有望25Q4和2026年加速出货，但重组带来一次性费用，调整公司25-27年净利润预测至2.03/13.51/19.35亿港元(相对上次预测分别-66%/+42%/+41%)，对应同比-41.2%/+565.2%/+43.2%。考虑到TCB和HB设备进展顺利，未来有望向领先晶圆代工客户大批量出货，且HBM4和16层HBM开启出货将进一步提振TCB需求，看好先进封装业务长期提振业绩和估值。

报告中称，公司深化布局TCB、HB，25Q4和26年有望出货加速：1)TCB方面，通过逻辑领域重要大客户验证，HBM4具备先发优势。①逻辑领域，预计25Q4及之后将获得领先晶圆代工客户及合作伙伴C2S订单，且C2W方面已通过客户认证、准备大量生产;②存储领域，公司针对HBM4-12H已获得多家客户订单，其中一家为主供;无助焊剂TCB(AOR)未来可针对16层HBM生产。2)HB方面，Q3继续交付。同客户合作HB，多个项目处于不同评估阶段。

此外，深圳子公司AEC清盘使公司短期转亏，但利好长期盈利改善。公司于25Q3对深圳制造工程(AEC)进行自愿性清盘，Q3产生重组和存货注销费用共计3.55亿港币，但完成后利好毛利率提升，预计年度节省成本1.28亿港币。

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