国泰海通：维持中国财险(02328)“增持”评级目标价22.82港元

智通财经

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智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，维持中国财险(02328)“增持”评级，给予2025年P/B为1.6倍，目标价22.82港元。公司2025年前三季度净利润同比+50.5%，预计得益于承保盈利及投资服务业绩共同改善驱动，其中承保利润148.65亿元，同比+130.7%;总投资收益359.00亿元，同比33.0%。截至25Q3归母净资产较年初+12.3%，增长稳健。维持2025-2027年EPS预测为2.14/2.40/2.55元，看好资负共振推动公司盈利稳健提升。

报告中称，25年前三季度公司财险保费收入同比+3.5%，其中车险保费收入同比+3.1%，预计主要受益于汽车保有量稳健增长以及车均保费企稳回升;非车险保费收入同比+3.8%，预计主要受益于意健险增长驱动。25年前三季度COR同比改善2.1pt至96.1%，预计得益于巨灾赔付减少以及强化费用管控;根据测算Q3单季COR为99.1%(同期为承保亏损)。分险种看，车险COR为94.8%(同比-2.0pt)，非车险COR为98.0%(同比-2.5pt)。该行看好公司降赔控费举措持续显效，推动实现2025年车险COR96%以内，非车险COR99%以内的承保盈利目标。

该行指，得益于25年前三季度资本市场上涨，以及公司配置结构优化，适度增配优质权益类资产，公司25年前三季度实现未年化总投资收益率5.4%，同比提振0.8pt。权益市场超预期回暖、费用率显著改善为股价催化剂。

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