金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，继10月25-26日中美经贸团队在吉隆坡进行新一轮会谈后，今日（10月30日）中美两国元首在韩国釜山举行会晤，深入讨论中美经贸关系等议题，同意加强经贸等领域合作。本轮协议总体具有建设性。芬太尼关税下调有望降低双边贸易交易成本、边际提振中国出口，并强化人民币升值逻辑。往前看，该机构对短期中美双边经贸关系走向谨慎乐观。本轮双方经贸摩擦快速升级/降级的经验显示，中美实力形成一定制衡，反而有助于提升短期两国经贸关系的稳定性，但双方加大国产自主投入力度或将是长期趋势不变、甚至可能加速。具体而言：中美经贸摩擦从升级到降级的时间越来越短，且平衡在向对中方有利的方向发展。中国出口韧性大幅超预期，对关税的脆弱性明显下降。更为重要的是，结构性因素系统性降低了中国出口对美国加征关税的脆弱性。中美经济周期和产业结构的互补性决定了中美经贸关系“下有底”。
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