金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指，短期来看，主产区原奶价格逐渐企稳，且散奶价格回升，原奶供需矛盾有所缓和。上游去化节奏看，随着奶价企稳9月奶牛存栏去化相对放缓，但行业仍处在深度亏损期，正处于青贮期，行业有望持续进行存栏去化，奶价周期拐点可期。从需求端来看，乳制品的需求仍表现出低温好于常温的趋势，部分乳业有可能持续推进结构优化，各地生育补贴政策落地也有一定预期，乳品深加工产能逐步投产，乳品需求或将触底。渠道层面，乳企加大会员商超、即时零售等新零售渠道布局。从盈利端，头部企业今年费率目标也希望稳中有降，预计盈利能力有望同比提升。
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