内房股逆市走弱 中国海外宏洋集团(00081)跌4.78% 机构指成交规模目前尚不足支撑整体性修复

金吾财讯
Oct 30, 2025

金吾财讯 | 内房股逆市走弱,截至发稿,中国海外宏洋集团(00081)跌4.78%,富力地产(02777)跌3.33%,绿城中国(03900)跌3.21%,建发国际集团(01908)跌3.01%,中国金茂(00817)跌2.80%,中国海外发展(00688)跌2.41%,融信中国(03301)跌2.41%,华润置地(01109)跌2.34%。消息面上,国泰海通发研报指,基于对27个一二线城市的七大核心指标模型测算,2025年三季度仅有19%的城市房地产市场呈现筑底迹象。首先,在成交量方面呈现“二手房强于新房”的分化格局,新房成交量普遍疲软,而二手房市场则展现出更强韧性。成都、上海等城市成交同比显著回升。其次,价格层面初现企稳信号但未成趋势,新房与二手房价格均在季度初普遍经历下跌后,于季末跌幅收窄或出现反弹。部分城市环比涨幅突出,但整体修复基础尚不牢固,城市间分化剧烈。最后,库存压力改善不明显,超过八成城市新房去化周期大致上行至18个月以上,且多数城市较第二季度开始去化难度加大。数据表明市场供大于求的现状依然严峻,去库存是当前核心挑战。无论是新房还是二手房价格,在2025年Q3都出现环比继续回落现象。具体而言,新房住宅价格在经历2024年10月以来同环比降幅收窄后,于2025年第三季度环比降幅有所扩大。二手房住宅价格同样跟随新房趋势,2025年第三季度环比跌幅也有所扩大。从二手房挂牌报价来看,当前二手房挂牌价仍处于下行通道。二手房以价换量现象比较普遍,导致市场观望情绪浓厚。短期需求在新房与二手房之间存在部分替代关系。成交规模目前尚不足支撑整体性修复。

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