What is going wrong and right at CSL

Morning Star AU

Oct 29

CSL (ASX: CSL) cut its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue and net profit after tax before amortization growth to 3% and 6% at the midpoint, respectively, from 5% and 9%. This was driven by declines in ...

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This was driven by declines in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/what-is-going-wrong-right-csl\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"morningstar_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What is going wrong and right at CSL</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat is going wrong and right at CSL\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-29 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/what-is-going-wrong-right-csl><strong>Morning Star AU</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>CSL (ASX: CSL) cut its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue and net profit after tax before amortization growth to 3% and 6% at the midpoint, respectively, from 5% and 9%. This was driven by declines in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/what-is-going-wrong-right-csl\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4086","symbol_name":"建筑产品","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/what-is-going-wrong-right-csl","article_id":"2579729978","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"morningstar_stock","url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/what-is-going-wrong-right-csl","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2579729978","pubTimestamp":1761667200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"morningstar_stock","name":"Morning Star"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"CSL (ASX: CSL) cut its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue and net profit after tax before amortization growth to 3% and 6% at the midpoint, respectively, from 5% and 9%. This was driven by declines in U","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"morningstar.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4086":"建筑产品","BK7067":"生物科技","CSL.AU":"CSL LIMITED","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","BK7511":"ESG概念","BK7501":"新冠治疗股","LU1169590202.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU0728928796.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SMALL&MID-CAP SDG HORIZONS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1169589451.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","CSL":"卡莱尔伙伴","BK7508":"医药生物股"},"translate_title":"CSL的对错之处","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CSL.AU":1.5,"CSL":1.5},"content_text":"CSL (ASX: CSL) cut its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue and net profit after tax before amortization growth to 3% and 6% at the midpoint, respectively, from 5% and 9%. This was driven by declines in US immunization, with the firm also delaying its plan to demerge the Seqirus vaccines arm. Shares fell 15%.Why it matters: We cut our EBIT forecasts by 3% on average, largely due to softer influenza vaccination rates in the US than we expected. The impact is limited, with Seqirus contributing less than 15% of group earnings. We expect vaccination rates to largely stabilize by fiscal 2028.We see a return to growth as health practitioners drive rates. Vaccine declines were inevitable after the pandemic boom, but infections remain high. We expect the US administration to maintain its positive recommendation of influenza vaccines, with efficacy supported by clinical trial evidence.CSL no longer targets June 2026 to demerge Seqirus, but is waiting until the US influenza vaccine market improves. We expect Seqirus to outperform broader industry declines as it prepares launches in new geographies and approaches 20% market share in the fast-growing pediatric market.The bottom line: We cut our fair value estimate for narrow-moat CSL by 3% to AUD 295 as we expect stabilization of Seqirus to take longer. However, shares are undervalued as we expect margins to rebound on plasma efficiency initiatives that are on track and yet to flow through.We forecast plasma gross margins recover 600 basis points to 57% by fiscal 2028. We expect 80% of this uplift from recent initiatives enabling faster and larger collections, and the rest from a favorable sales mix shift as higher-margin products offer greater convenience and take market share.Our forecast 10-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 6% is largely driven by our 10-year immunoglobulin revenue CAGR of 8%. Long-term demand for Ig is driven by improving diagnosis rates for immunodeficiencies and is largely safe from competition.Demand for CSL’s plasma products persists as supply improvesCSL is one of three Tier 1 plasma therapy companies that benefit from an oligopoly in a highly consolidated market. All the players are vertically integrated as plasma sourcing is a key constraint in production. The plasma sourcing market is currently in short supply, however, CSL is well positioned having invested significantly in plasma collection centers, owning roughly 30% of collection centers globally.One major threat to plasma products is recombinant products. Recombinants are quickly replacing plasma products in haemophilia treatment despite being more expensive. CSL has an excellent R&D track record and has developed recombinant products for haemophilia. However, we expect revenue growth to slow in the haemophilia segment based on competitor Roche’s successful launch of recombinant Hemlibra.Immunoglobulin product sales are key to CSL. The use of immunoglobulins is currently growing due to improved diagnosis, rising affordability, and gaining approval for increased indications. This market is not yet impacted by recombinants although both CSL and competitors are pursuing R&D in Fc receptor-targeting therapy to treat autoimmune diseases.However, gene therapy represents the biggest risk to the plasma industry as it aims to cure rather than treat diseases. While the potentially prohibitive cost may result in slow adoption, CSL has strategically expanded its scope via the acquisition of Calimmune in fiscal 2018 and licensing a late stage Haemophilia B gene therapy, Hemgenix, from UniQure in fiscal 2020.CSL is the second largest influenza vaccine manufacturer, behind Sanofi, and is on the forefront of changes in influenza vaccines where manufacturing is shifting from egg-based to cell-based culturing. It’s also conducting preclinical testing of mRNA influenza vaccines.The company has demonstrated good sense for R&D and evaluates spend based on the commercial outlook. The strategy for CSL Behring has been to target rare diseases, a typically low volume and high price and margin business. There is little reimbursement risk in this area or in the vaccine business, Seqirus.Bulls sayCSL is investing in both physical capacity and R&D, leaving it well positioned to take advantage of growth opportunities in the key immunoglobulins market.The acquisition of Calimmune’s gene therapy platform in fiscal 2018 and UniQure’s late stage haemophilia B gene therapy candidate in fiscal 2020 will help defend against emerging competition.CSL has a strong R&D track record and the ongoing rate of investment is ahead of major competitors.Bears sayAreas of the plasma industry could be replaced by newer therapies, which would leave CSL overinvested in plasma collection and fractionation capacity that will be hard to repurpose.Key segments of haemophilia and hereditary angioedema are currently facing competitive pressure from Roche’s Hemlibra and Takeda’s Takhzyro that offer more convenient delivery.The R&D pipeline has a highly variable range of outcomes and R&D spending could ultimately amount to nothing.Get Morningstar insights in your inboxTerms used in this articleStar Rating: Our one- to five-star ratings are guideposts to a broad audience and individuals must consider their own specific investment goals, risk tolerance, and several other factors. A five-star rating means our analysts think the current market price likely represents an excessively pessimistic outlook and that beyond fair risk-adjusted returns are likely over a long timeframe. A one-star rating means our analysts think the market is pricing in an excessively optimistic outlook, limiting upside potential and leaving the investor exposed to capital loss.Fair Value: Morningstar’s Fair Value estimate results from a detailed projection of a company’s future cash flows, resulting from our analysts’ independent primary research. Price To Fair Value measures the current market price against estimated Fair Value. If a company’s stock trades at $100 and our analysts believe it is worth $200, the price to fair value ratio would be 0.5. A Price to Fair Value over 1 suggests the share is overvalued.Moat Rating: An economic moat is a structural feature that allows a firm to sustain excess profits over a long period. Companies with a narrow moat are those we believe are more likely than not to sustain excess returns for at least a decade. For wide-moat companies, we have high confidence that excess returns will persist for 10 years and are likely to persist at least 20 years. To learn about finding different sources of moat, read this article by Mark LaMonica.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}