蒙特利尔银行资本市场经济学家本杰明·雷茨表示，尽管加拿大8月GDP意外环比下降0.3%，但这不会迫使加拿大央行调整现行货币政策立场。该行仍维持“2026年初可能实施25个基点降息”的预期，若劳动力市场持续疲软，届时政策利率或降至2%。

　　数据显示，批发行业当月下跌1.2%（创2023年4月以来最大降幅），出口导向型制造业产出萎缩0.5%，加剧了经济动能走弱压力。雷茨强调：“服务业增长失速更令人警觉——该领域占经济总量78%，但8月环比仅微增0.1%，反映消费信贷紧缩正侵蚀内需根基。”

　　分析指出，加拿大央行当前首要目标仍是抑制核心通胀（同比3.5%）抬头风险，商品价格疲软与就业市场松动尚不足以构成政策转向依据。

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责任编辑：王许宁

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