建银国际:下调百威亚太目标价至8.6港元 料更清晰增长战略将有助稳定其中国业务

智通财经
Nov 03

智通财经APP获悉,建银国际发布研报称,由于百威亚太(01876)今年首九月业绩疲弱及销售前景趋于审慎,故下调其中国市场销量增长假设,并将2025-2026年净利润预测分别下调11%/3%。相应下调目标价9%,由9.4港元降至8.6港元,维持“跑赢大市”评级。该行预期百威亚太更清晰的增长战略将有助于稳定其中国业务,并在中期内实现更优的盈利增长。

报告表示,百威亚太今年第三季业绩虽疲弱但基本符合预期。按地区划分,中国市场表现仍低迷。相比之下,韩国实现稳健的利润率扩张,印度则持续推动产品高端化。中国市场方面,管理层正优先推进通路(RTM)升级,加强线上、线下及O2O渠道的家用消费渗透,并加大对核心品牌的投资力度。该行认为,这些举措将有助于集团逐步重拾市场份额,惟转折点的具体时机仍存不确定性。结合印度市场强劲的高端化趋势,该行预计2026年西亚太地区收入将增长1.5%。

该行同时预计,中国渠道库存健康、成本环境温和,以及经营杠杆效应,将支撑EBITDA利润率提升1.3个百分点至29.5%。百威亚太在韩国市场持续跑赢同业,尽管需求环境偏弱,仍在家庭消费和堂饮渠道均实现份额提升。该行预计202年东南亚地区收入将增长6.4%,其中销量增长2.3%,ASP增长4%。在经营杠杆和市场份额提升的双重推动下,EBITDA利润率将扩张2.9个百分点至33.5%。

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