标普确认意大利BBB+评级且上调展望至正面 料其提前脱离欧盟赤字监管

环球市场播报
Nov 03, 2025

  国际评级机构标普周五在评级审议中确认意大利主权信用评级维持在BBB+,并将展望从稳定调升至正面,主要基于对公共财政持续改善及结构性改革推进的积极预判。标普在报告中指出:“继2024年财政赤字率降至GDP的3.4%后,预计2025年将进一步回落至3.0%,这或使意大利提前至2026年退出欧盟超额赤字监管程序,较原预期提早一年。”

  但标普同时警示,意大利仍面临政府债务高企、融资需求庞大等长期结构性挑战。该国政府债务规模预计将长期维持高位,叠加人口老龄化带来的适龄劳动力缩减,持续对生产力和财政可持续性构成压力。此外,经济长期增长动能不足亦是制约评级上行空间的关键因素。

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