高盛分析师在最新报告中指出，当前美国政府停摆事件可能成为有记录以来经济影响最严重的一次。“不仅可能超过2018-2019年持续35天的部分停摆，其覆盖范围也远超前几次长期停摆——此前主要局限在少数部门。”报告强调，若停摆周期延长，可能加剧对联邦采购与投资的抑制作用，甚至可能向私营部门活动蔓延。
根据测算框架，假设停摆持续约六周，高盛预计这将导致2025年第四季度美国经济季度环比年化增长率下降1.15个百分点。不过该机构同时预测，随着部分联邦采购和投资从2025年第四季度延至2026年第一季度，2026年首季增长率将因此获得1.3个百分点的额外提振。这种跨期效应揭示出，政府预算僵局造成的经济波动可能在时间维度上重新分配而非完全消弭。
责任编辑：王许宁
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