【券商聚焦】中国银河证券:经济与流动性预期边际好转有望在Q4顺周期大宗商品有色金属价格上行

金吾财讯
Nov 04

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券表示,2025Q3主动权益类公募基金继续增持A股有色金属行业,有色金属行业重仓持股市值占股票投资市值比上行至2.84%。2025Q3主动权益类公募基金主要增持A股铜板块。2025Q3主动权益类公募基对A股有色金属行业的个股持仓仍主要集中在金铜等大宗商品龙头公司,重点增持有色新材料与锡资源个股。

该机构指,中美经贸谈判顺利,美联储持续降息并将于12月停止缩表,经济与流动性预期边际好转有望在2025Q4继续支撑铜铝等顺周期大宗商品有色金属价格上行。当前铜铝价格比处于历史高位,四季度在工业金属价格上涨中铝价或更具弹性。而四季度氧化铝价格重回低位,成本下行电解铝利润将进一步提升。且2025Q3后主动权益类公募基金对A股铝板块的持仓占比处于近4年的低位,后续有加大增持空间。此外,2025Q4储能需求旺盛已顺畅传导至上游锂电材料环节,推动材料端排产提升并出现涨价迹象;产业链高景气延伸,带动上游碳酸锂行业出现供应缺口,库存去化驱动锂价上行,锂行业公司利润在四季度有望继续好转。三季度主动权益类公募基金对A股锂板块增持但持仓占比仍处于历史低位。

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