观点:市场下跌的核心原因是流动性紧缩与美联储鹰派发言

Odaily
Nov 04, 2025

Odaily星球日报讯 分析师 Cato_KT 在 X 平台发文表示,今日凌晨市场下跌的核心原因是流动性紧缩阶段下市场被“抽血”,具体有两点:

1. 美国国债拍卖导致流动性紧缩。今日 3 个月与 6 个月期美国国债拍卖总额达 1630 亿美元,导致金融市场大量资金被吸走,对风险资产价格构成压力。

2. 美联储理事 Goolsbee 发表鹰派言论,导致 12 月降息概率从 69.8%降至 67.5%,进一步打击了市场信心。

以上两个原因,一个是根本原因,一个是诱因,两者叠加之下,导致风险资产被打压,尤其是比特币的下跌,体感更明显。破局的方式很简单,一方面政府恢复运行,另一方面美联储在隔夜逆回购中减缓回购额度释放部分流动性缓解短期流动性紧张问题。

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