This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.

Data Fog Obscures Growth

NDR Hotline | Insights NDR Oct. 31: In a week when we would have gotten official government data on Q3 real GDP, consumer income and spending, and PCE inflation, among other indicators, investors and everyone else are left relying on alternative data sources to gauge the health of the economy. The data fog is due to the government shutdown, now in its fifth week and on track to beat longevity records.

While shutdowns typically exert a temporary drag of 0.1% to 0.2% on GDP growth for every week that they are on, activity mostly recovers after the shutdown ends. Any stock market disruption has also been short lived. This partly explains why the current government shutdown has turned mostly into a background noise for markets. More than that, alternative data show that economic momentum has remained positive in the second half of 2025, supporting our view of no recession in the near term...

The Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index, which tracks weekly changes in consumer behavior, the labor market, and production, and is scaled to the year over year change in real GDP, implies growth of 2% to 2.5% in Q3 and so far in Q4.

Veneta Dimitrova

Sunny Season for Stocks

Paulsen Perspectives Oct. 30: The S&P 500 is at an all-time high. Nonetheless, historical stock market seasonals are suggesting the S&P 500 may continue rising at least until next summer. Positive seasonals are comforting but are far from infallible. While not definitive, they do provide a nice foundation for stock investors headed into the winter months -- particularly when economic policies are becoming more accommodative, S&P 500 earnings momentum remains strong, stock market participation seems to be broadening, and valuations outside of new-era names still remain relatively attractive.

Confidence on Main Street remains near record lows, suggesting there is still considerable room for pessimism and fear to abate and be replaced by rising confidence, fueling both economic and stock market successes.

Jim Paulsen

Housing Trends Are Troubling

Early Morning With Dave Rosenberg Research rosenbergresearch.com@substack.com Oct. 30: As the equity market gets propelled by the relentless AI trade, not every sector is joining in on the party. The Homebuilding stocks have rolled over by more than 16% from September highs, even with lower mortgage rates. The Residential REITs sector has slumped to an 18-month low and is back into an official bear market (down by almost -22% from the nearby peak). Rates are lower, but it is the reason they are lower that matters: cracks emerging in the labor market.

Significant incentives weren't enough to prevent the likes of D.R. Horton from reporting a decline in its quarterly profits, with the builder's gross margin on home sales slipping to 20% from 21.8% in the past quarter, with average prices deflating by -3% from year-ago levels. This is an industry-wide phenomenon. [There are] stagnant home sales, economic uncertainty, aggressive incentive campaigns (add on mortgage buydowns), and price discounts. Tech doesn't need job creation -- but housing does.

Adding insult to injury was the news that pending home sales in September, a bellwether leading indicator, came in flat versus a consensus forecast of 1.2%. At a depressed 74.8 reading, it lines up in the bottom 7% of all time and it really says something that it is lower today than at the depths of the housing-induced recession in November 2008.

David Rosenberg

Improving Outlook for Oil

Investment Commentary Wells Fargo Investment Institute Oct. 27: Last week, West Texas Intermediate $(WTI)$ oil traded near the 2025 low in the mid-$50s before U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers caused a late-week spike...

What now? We believe a modest softening of the economy in the near term, combined with OPEC+'s seemingly aggressive intention of adding oil supply, will keep oil prices under pressure in the coming months. However, we believe this supply deluge will eventually ease. WTI oil prices are below the $65 average breakeven cost for new oil wells in the U.S. This suggests that U.S. oil production growth will likely stall, as it becomes unprofitable for an increasing number of domestic oil producers to drill new wells as oil prices decline further. Additionally, the OPEC+ campaign to increase production is on track to conclude in 2026, notably tightening the global oil-supply spigot.

Looking through to year-end 2026, we forecast the improving supply outlook, coupled with a reaccelerating economy, will push WTI oil prices into our target range of $65 to $75 per barrel.

Austin Pickle

10 Dividend "Cushions"

Sector Watch CFRA Oct. 27: The S&P 500 is trading at a price/earnings ratio of 24 times next-12-month earnings projections, according to S&P Capital IQ. This is a 42% premium to its 20-year average and more than two standard deviations above the long-term mean. The S&P 500 Information Technology sector trades at a 66% premium to its 20-year average, while Communication Services (43%), Consumer Discretionary (41%), and Industrials (47%) also trade at extremes to their long-term averages...

Investors concerned about a possible pullback in prices might want to look to dividends as correction cushions. Granted, not all high-yielding stocks are worth buying. Like blades of grass that stick up too far and end up being trimmed back, stocks may sport elevated yields due to unsustainable payout ratios (dividends as a percent of earnings) that may get reduced, possibly trimming the stock price along the way.

Here are 10 of the highest yielding stocks in the S&P 500 with [Buy or Strong Buy] rankings by CFRA analysts, with dividend payout ratios of 75% or lower: Comcast, EOG Resources, Exxon Mobil, Hasbro, Invesco, Merck, Omnicom Group, Target, J. M. Smucker, and VICI Properties.

Sam Stovall

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October 31, 2025 18:29 ET (22:29 GMT)

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