MW The government shutdown is about to become the longest ever. Here's what could finally end it.
By Robert Schroeder
Air-travel 'disaster' and Obamacare open-enrollment loom as shutdown lengthens
Federal workers line up to receive food packages. The government shut down, which is barreling towards a record, has forced federal workers to miss paychecks.
The government shutdown is poised to mark a major milestone next week in the absence of a deal, as the partial closure heads towards the longest on record.
From workers skipping paychecks to missing economic data causing the Federal Reserve to fly partially blind in its decision making, the effects of the shutdown are being increasingly felt throughout the U.S. economy. And as of Saturday morning, there's no end in sight.
The pressure is only likely to grow. Food-stamp benefits were scheduled to expire Saturday, yet on Friday afternoon, federal judges in Massachusetts and Rhode Island blocked the Trump administration from ceasing to pay them. Meanwhile, millions of Americans who buy plans under the Affordable Care Act may start enrolling in their health insurance Saturday. But without the subsidies at the heart of the shutdown battle, many are in for sticker shock.
The shutdown would become the country's most prolonged on Tuesday night, eclipsing the 35-day shutdown that stretched from December 2018 to January 2019.
Here's a closer look at some of the key issues around the shutdown, and what could force its end.
The coming air travel 'disaster'
Holiday air travel is rapidly approaching, and with Thanksgiving flights in sight, some see a "disaster" in the making if the shutdown doesn't end.
That was the word choice of Vice President JD Vance, who met on Thursday with U.S. airline executives.
Invoking the paychecks missed by federal workers like air-traffic controllers, Vance said: "How many of them are not going to show up for work?" after missing multiple checks.
Airlines themselves chimed in, with United Airlines Holdings Inc. $(UAL)$ and Delta Airlines Inc. $(DAL)$ urging lawmakers to end the shutdown.
Read on: Air-traffic controllers miss their first paycheck. The shutdown's effects on airports are getting worse.
Food-stamp stress
Funding for Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program benefits, or food stamps, was set to lapse Saturday before the judges' order to tap emergency accounts to pay for them. Around 40 million people receive food stamps, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and without the aid, Americans would need to turn to programs like community food pantries.
The judges gave the White House leeway on whether to fund SNAP partially or in full for November, according to the Associated Press.
In a social-media post late Friday, President Donald Trump suggested the government would comply with the rulings, but said more clarity was needed from the courts.
"Even if we get immediate guidance, it will unfortunately be delayed while States get the money out," he said in a post on Truth Social.
It's not just consumers and families that would be affected by an interruption in SNAP benefits. There's a potential hit to the U.S. economy as well, in the form of depleted spending.
"The $8 billion paid in monthly SNAP benefits represents around 10% of retail grocery sales, though the impact won't be limited to groceries as households are more likely to substitute away from other retail categories to find cash to allocate to food spending," said analysts at RBC Economics in a note on Thursday. "This represents a sizable risk that retail sales and broader consumption will slow in Q4 as a result."
The Department of Agriculture said ahead of the shutdown it would pay the SNAP benefits using emergency funding, then later said such funding wasn't "legally available."
Now read: Why Nov. 1 is a make-or-break day for millions of Americans' finances
Obamacare could force action
The threat of sharply rising health insurance premiums may serve to end the shutdown, though to date the parties remain far apart. The end of subsidies for plans bought under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, will become more apparent as open enrollment begins for those plans.
Higher premiums won't kick in until after Dec. 31. Americans also have already been getting letters from their insurers revealing their higher rates.
But some see Obamacare as forcing a deal, along with the expiration of SNAP benefits.
"Given the Nov. 1 action-forcing catalysts of SNAP benefit delays & ACA Open Enrollment, we believe resolution on the shutdown is likely by Nov. 14," said Chris Krueger, an analyst at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, in a note on Friday.
He predicted a one-year Obamacare subsidy extension is likely and added that reforms could be made for the following year for involving things like income caps.
Also read: Banks like Chase, Capital One are offering financial help to customers affected by the shutdown. Here are the potential downsides.
Election aftermath
The shutdown's length milestone and Election Day could collide on Tuesday, thrusting the federal closure into the spotlight anew and perhaps provoking a fresh push to end it.
Voters in New Jersey and Virginia will choose governors, in some of the more closely watched races. Wins by Democrats could give them "an opportunity to claim victory by proclaiming that support for their healthcare messaging and shutdown tactics helped fuel the party's victories at the ballot box," Christopher Niebuhr of Beacon Policy Advisors recently wrote. That would "cushion the blow of folding in the government shutdown fight."
But it's "also possible that resounding victories in the November 4th elections and the launch of the ACA's open-enrollment period will only strengthen the party's resolve," said Niebuhr.
Victor Reklaitis contributed .
-Robert Schroeder
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November 01, 2025 09:16 ET (13:16 GMT)
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