【券商聚焦】建银国际维持百威亚太(01876)“跑赢大盘”评级 惟指前三季业绩疲软

金吾财讯
Nov 03, 2025

金吾财讯 | 建银国际研报指,百威亚太(01876)第三季度净利润同比下降8%,至1.85亿美元,核心原因是营收端表现持续疲软。2025年第三季度营收同比下降9%,这一结果由两方面因素共同导致:销量同比下滑11%,平均售价(ASP)则同比提升1%。得益于大宗商品成本红利及运营效率提升,2025年第三季度毛利率(GPM)微升0.1个百分点,至51.4%。尽管营收增长疲软导致经调整EBITDA(息税折旧摊销前利润)同比下降8.6%,但受亚太东区(APACEast)业务表现强劲拉动,EBITDA利润率仍微升0.1个百分点,至28.2%。在中国市场,管理层将重点放在 “渠道到消费者”(RTM)模式升级上,具体包括加强线上、线下及线上到线下(O2O)全场景的家用消费业务;同时加大对百威(Budweiser)、哈尔滨等核心品牌的投入。该机构认为这些举措将帮助公司逐步夺回市场份额,但业务好转的具体时间仍存在一定不确定性。受2025年前三季度(9M25)业绩疲软及销售前景更趋保守影响,该机构下调了中国市场销量增长假设,并据此将2025财年(FY25F)和2026财年净利润预测分别下调11%和3%。该机构将估值倍数(2025财年企业价值对EBITDA倍数,EV/EBITDA)维持10.0倍不变,并顺延至2026财年,由此将目标股价从每股9.40港元下调至8.60港元。该机构认为,百威亚太已明确恢复增长的战略,这将有助于稳定其中国业务,并在中期推动公司实现更优的盈利增长。维持“跑赢大盘”评级。

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