【券商聚焦】财通证券维持贝壳(02423)“买入”评级指我国二手房市场空间广阔

金吾财讯

Nov 03

金吾财讯 | 财通证券研报指出，贝壳(02423)规模效应及管理能力是公司经纪业务的核心竞争力，1H2025公司二手房交易额同比增长13.7%至11638亿元，带动二手房业务收入规模提升4.0%至136亿元。本轮行业周期中，二手房成交有望率先企稳，尽管我国当前二手房成交占比已逐步提升，但对比海外国家仍有差距，成交规模仍有较大提升空间，叠加佣金率趋于稳定，该机构预计公司二手房业务增长势头或不减。新房业务方面，公司市占率稳中有升，截至2025年6月30日，公司新房交易额市占率已达12.6%，预付佣模式压降应收账款风险。该机构指出，我国家装行业市场空间广阔，但由于其非标、低频、大宗的行业特性，过去一直难有规模性企业。公司通过经纪业务的海量积累带来低获客成本和强品牌效应，叠加标准化能力及运营模式能够有效解决传统家装行业单次博弈的信任问题，未来有望整合家装行业。该机构表示，预计公司2025-2027年收入分别为1033亿元/1171亿元/1306亿元。考虑我国二手房市场空间广阔，公司作为房产经纪龙头具备规模效应和管理优势有望率先受益，叠加公司积极拓展家装家居等多元化业务，后续具备利润弹性，该机构预计2025-2027年Non-GAAP净利润分别为74亿元/88亿元/108亿元，维持“买入”评级。

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