HTX DeepThink:美联储结束缩表释放流动性信号,比特币盘整中寻求突破动能

Blockbeats
Nov 04

BlockBeats 消息,11 月 4 日,HTX DeepThink 专栏作者、HTX Research 研究员 Chloe(@ChloeTalk1)发文分析指出,美联储宣布将于 12 月 1 日停止资产负债表缩减,并将政策利率下调至 3.75%~4.0%,这标志着持续三年的量化紧缩(QT)周期即将结束。鲍威尔表示,银行准备金已接近“充裕”下限,结束缩表旨在避免进一步抽离市场流动性。

Chloe 指出,此次政策转向源于金融系统三大流动性指标趋紧:隔夜逆回购(ON RRP)余额从 2.6 万亿美元高点降至接近零;财政部现金账户(TGA)余额维持在约 9839 亿美元;银行准备金 约为 3.3 万亿美元,接近 2019 年流动性紧张时水平。这被视为美联储为防范金融风险而释放的“流动性转折信号”。

宏观层面上,10 年期 TIPS 实际收益率回落至约 1.77%,美元指数徘徊在 99.8 附近,实际利率下行和美元走弱均为风险资产带来支撑。与此同时,比特币自 8 月以来的上涨势头进入盘整阶段,期权未平仓量创下 630 亿美元新高,主要集中在 Deribit 平台。Chloe 认为,美联储结束缩表意味着边际资金供给回升,若流动性宽松持续且 ETF 资金流入增强,或将为比特币重启上行提供动能。但短期走势仍取决于后续 CPI、就业等宏观数据及 12 月议息会议的降息节奏。

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