小摩:核心偿付能力比率下降或影响内险股股息 偏好中国人寿(02628)及中国平安(02318)

智通财经
Nov 07, 2025

智通财经APP获悉,摩根大通发布研报称,多间内险企业第三季核心偿付能力比率按季下降,平均幅度达9个百分点,内地债券收益率反弹对多间险企的偿付能力造成负面影响,但强劲盈利与准备金增长有助缓解相关效应。该行偏好中国人寿(02628),因其强劲盈利与保守的偿付资本管理。该行亦青睐中国平安(02318),基于其明年预测股息率6%领先同业。

报告指,内地主要寿险公司与非寿险公司第三季核心偿付能力比率分别按季跌16个百分点及上升3个百分点。险企管理团队采取多项措施响应,包括发行永续债、降低股票风险敝口及广泛减少非标准资产余额。尽管主要险企首三季盈利增长强劲,但偿付资本波动性可能成为年底股息预测的主要抵销因素,特别是对中小型寿险公司。

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