（来源：研报虎）供给：国内天花板锁定，海外增量影响有限我们预计2025、2026年全球电解铝供应量在7430、7571万吨，同比+2.1%、1.9%。其中，(1)国内供应刚性凸显，增量基本见顶。在“反内卷”与“碳达峰”政策约束下，产能天花板难以突破，未来增长主要依赖存量置换。预计2025年国内净增产能仅20万吨，可预见的总增量空间仅剩56万吨。(2)海外增量难以流入，对国内市场影响微弱。尽管印度、...
Source Link（来源：研报虎）供给：国内天花板锁定，海外增量影响有限我们预计2025、2026年全球电解铝供应量在7430、7571万吨，同比+2.1%、1.9%。其中，(1)国内供应刚性凸显，增量基本见顶。在“反内卷”与“碳达峰”政策约束下，产能天花板难以突破，未来增长主要依赖存量置换。预计2025年国内净增产能仅20万吨，可预见的总增量空间仅剩56万吨。(2)海外增量难以流入，对国内市场影响微弱。尽管印度、...
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