中信建投 | 铝深度四:供给增量转向海外,不改供需紧平衡格局

中信建投证券研究
Nov 07, 2025

文|王介超 覃静 邵三才未来三年全球电解铝供需基本处于平衡状态,但是这种平衡建立在中国电解铝满产超产,海外电解铝新增产能如期释放的基础之上,供应稍出问题便会供不应求。当高价格-高利润-新供应的传导链条受制于供应时,价格就具备了易涨难跌的基础。同时,欧美AI投资竞赛遭遇缺电瓶颈,对欧美超过400万吨的存量供应构成挤出威胁,一旦触发,铝价或会出现加速向上。点击小程序查看报告原文海外供应接力中国,但供应...

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