金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指，2025年11月10日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》）。《意见》提出要在“促进新能源大规模开发的同时实现高质量消纳，满足全国每年新增2亿千瓦以上新能源合理消纳需求，助力实现碳达峰目标”。该机构表示，2025年以来，从136号文出台稳定新能源全面入市后的电价预期，到8月国补回款提速，再到此次促进消纳指导意见的下发，新能源政策拼图逐步补齐。该机构认为在政策端的持续呵护下，新能源行业当前面临的电价、补贴、消纳问题有望逐渐得到缓和，建议把握拐点性机会。在此基础上，新能源的大规模高比例发展必然要求电力系统整体调节能力的提升，建议关注可靠性、灵活性价值逐步兑现的火电，以及拥有风光抽蓄成长性加持的水电。
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