金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，随着部分省市以旧换新补贴政策的收紧，叠加高基数效应，2025年10月全国乘用车市场零售224万辆，同/环比-0.8%/-0.1%；1-10月乘用车零售累计1,925万辆，同比+7.9%。10月新能源渗透率57.2%，自主品牌在新能源市场份额进一步提升。出口方面延续强势增长，新能源乘用车出口占比升至44%。该机构指，2026年新能源购置税减免政策调整（从全免到减半）有望刺激消费者在年底前集中购车，叠加车企年末冲量，以及春节前建库需求，我们预计2025年末乘用车销量仍将维持高景气。但4季度集中放量后，2026年1季度车市或回到季节性淡季，建议投资者把握结构行情同时保持审慎，关注板块短期波动。建议关注：小鹏汽车（09868/XPEV US/买入）全新P7/增程车型陆续上市，同时海外本地化生产逐步落地，带动销量和毛利率提升；吉利汽车（00175/买入）私有化极氪后推动内部资源整合；赛力斯（601127 CH/买入）问界系列进一步拓展高端市场并提升盈利水平。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.