金吾财讯 | 国泰海通发研报指，水泥：海外盈利超预期，国内再次触底等待供给变局。25Q3水泥板块盈利能力的亮点还是在海外，在非洲等地区进行海外扩张的企业如华新水泥等盈利能力的优势比较大，出海成效的结构性表现还是投资者关注的核心。向国内来看，无论在需求量本身，还是价格本身，环比Q2都有一定走弱。但是需求量下滑的增速，以及吨毛利的绝对值角度来看，2024年作为年度底部的概率还在越来越大。后续反内卷的思路下，限制超产的执行依然是行业改善供需最大的关注点。而在股东回报的角度上，伴随着行业股权激励等推动，其改善趋势也值得期待。
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