核心观点展望26 年,我们认为行业外需β相对更优,建议优选强α个股;内需方面,供给创新仍是最大结构性亮点,板块整体处于估值底部区间,关注消费地产政策未来边际变化,枕戈待旦。1)出口优先:中美关系平稳前行,美国对东南亚等关税基本落定,下游订单Q3 起逐步恢复。关税传导、终端提价或影响部分需求,美联储降息有望带动美国消费,尤其是地产后周期相关需求。出口企业分担关税或影响毛利率,头部企业凭借海外产能和...
Source Link核心观点展望26 年,我们认为行业外需β相对更优,建议优选强α个股;内需方面,供给创新仍是最大结构性亮点,板块整体处于估值底部区间,关注消费地产政策未来边际变化,枕戈待旦。1)出口优先:中美关系平稳前行,美国对东南亚等关税基本落定,下游订单Q3 起逐步恢复。关税传导、终端提价或影响部分需求,美联储降息有望带动美国消费,尤其是地产后周期相关需求。出口企业分担关税或影响毛利率,头部企业凭借海外产能和...
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