【券商聚焦】第一上海予中国石油股份(00857)买入评级 指近半年油价企稳 业绩环比改善

金吾财讯
Nov 11, 2025

金吾财讯 | 第一上海发研报指,中国石油股份(00857)2025年前三季度公司实现营业收入2.17万亿元,同比-3.9%;毛利润为1751亿元;归母净利润1263亿元,同比-4.9%。国际市场原油价格相较去年下行,布伦特原油期货均价同比下跌14.6%至69.91美元/桶。公司第三季度营业收入7192亿元,毛利润580亿元,归母净利润423亿元,近半年油价企稳,业绩环比改善。油气和新能源业务经营稳健:前三季度公司原油产量7.14亿桶,同比+0.8%;可销售天然气产量3.98万亿立方英尺,同比增长4.6%,风光发电项目累计发电量达57.9亿千瓦时,同比+72.2%,前三季度油气单位操作成本降至10.79美元/桶,同比-6.1%;油气和新能源业务实现经营利润1,251.03亿元,整体盈利水平稳健。炼化业务高端化转型提速:前三季度公司原油加工量达 10.41亿桶,同比增长0.4%;化工产品商品量2959万吨,同比+3.3%。高附加值产品表现亮眼,该板块合计实现经营利润162.40亿元,转型成效持续显现。受益于各板块业务提质增效及天然气业务高增,该机构预测公司 2025-2027年的收入分别为28620亿元/28777亿元/29347亿元人民币;归母净利润分别为1608亿元、1670亿元和1734亿元;给予公司2026年10倍PE估值,目标价为9.78港元,较现价有15%的上涨空间,给予买入评级。

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