美银证券：料中国天然气需求增长放缓降昆仑能源(00135)评级至“跑输大市” 偏好中国石油股份(00857)

智通财经网

Nov 12, 2025

智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，预期中国天然气需求增长将于2025至27年放缓至每年2%至3%，相较于过去十年的年均复合增长率为9%，因工业需求疲软，煤炭仍然是更经济的燃料，加上燃气发电的平准化成本(LCOE)最高，令“煤转可再生能源”更具吸引力。

该行维持对中国石油股份(00857)的“买入”评级，因其保持天然气平均售价相对稳定，同时进口天然气亏损随油价下跌而收窄;中石油H股目标价升12%至9.5港元，中石油A股(601857.SH)目标价升10%至11元人民币。该行补充，内地石化行业“反内卷”进展仍有限，在明年次季前基本面料难有改善。

不过，该行将昆仑能源(00135)评级由“中性”下调至“跑输大市”，因工业客户占公司零售天然气销量75%，在成本几乎不变时，公司需要通过降价以维持对客户的吸引力，例如玻璃制造商客户对价格较敏感。同时，该行认为股息增长空间有限，因公司已达成45%派息指引，且仍需要为并购预留资金;目标价降16%至7港元。

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